Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground in key Rust Belt states, a shift that could significantly impact the 2024 presidential election landscape, according to the new data from prediction market Polymarket.
What Happened: In Pennsylvania, a state crucial to any path to the White House, Trump now holds a 55% chance of victory compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 45%. Trump has built on his lead in the Keystone State, which was tied at 50:50 only a few weeks ago.
Michigan, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, is also witnessing a tightening race.
While Harris maintains an edge, her lead has eroded from 59% to 55%.
This 4-point drop signals growing Republican momentum in a state that proved pivotal in the 2016 election.
The trend extends beyond the Rust Belt.
In Arizona, Trump’s position has strengthened to 63%, leaving Harris trailing at 37%.
Georgia, another battleground state, shows Trump with a solid 60% to 40% advantage.
Even Nevada, often considered a toss-up, now leans towards Trump with a 54% to 46% edge.
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These Polymarket predictions, based on over $800 million in wagers, paint a picture of a resurgent Trump campaign.
Overall, the former president holds a 52% chance of reclaiming the White House, compared to Harris’s 46%.
The prediction market data stands in contrast to several national polls, some of which have shown Kamala Harris leading nationally. The extending lead of the evening of the first Presidential debate between the former President and the current Vice President.
What’s Next: As these political shifts unfold, the financial world is taking notice and the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 is positioned to explore the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency markets.
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