Vice President Kamala Harris is nearing a head-to-head matchup against former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
The matchup comes after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Early polling data show a close race between Harris and Trump with the vice president gaining support that Biden lost.
What Happened: Prior to Biden dropping out of the 2024 election race, Trump’s lead had been growing in polls and betting odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets in the head-to-head battle against the current president.
A new Morning Consult poll shows how voters would vote in the expected head-to-head matchup of Trump and Harris.
The new poll shows the following results from voters polled after Biden made his announcement on July 21 through July 23.
Kamala Harris: 45%
Donald Trump: 47%
Someone Else: 5%
Don’t Know: 4%
The poll found that 65% of Democratic voters support Harris as the top option for the nomination and 59% said she had the best chance of the Democratic candidates used in the poll to beat Trump in the 2024 election.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom ranked second among Democratic candidates that should get the nomination and have the best chance of beating Trump at 7% and 9% respectively.
The poll of voters also listed several hypothetical head-to-head matchups of Democratic candidates against Trump with Harris performing better than the likes of Pete Buttigieg (39% to 46%), Newsom (39% to 47%), Gretchen Whitmer (39% to 47%) and Josh Shapiro (37% to 46%).
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Why It’s Important: While Harris trails Trump by 2-points, she has gained support compared to Biden and ranks well with several key demographics.
Here are some of the key voter groups and how Biden and Harris compare versus Trump:
- Male voters: Harris -5 points, Biden -12 points
- Female voters: Harris 0 (even), Biden -2 points
- Independent voters: Harris +5 points, Biden -6 points
- Black voters: Harris +54 points, Biden +39 points
- Hispanic voters: Harris +8 points, Biden +4 points
- White voters: Harris -14 points, Biden -17 points
Harris ranks ahead of Biden on all the demographics above and ranks ahead of Trump on the key independent voters demographic that could play a large role in the 2024 presidential election.
Last week’s poll saw Trump with a four-point lead over Biden, a lead that grew to six-points later in the week ahead of the Republican National Convention.
A key for the 2024 election could be voter turnout. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said they are “much more motivated” to vote in the election, compared to 24% that answered the same before Biden dropped out.
Going forward, 63% of voters say Biden should finish his current presidential term, with 30% saying the president should resign and Harris should take over.
Interestingly enough, with Biden dropping out of the race, some voters think Trump should also reconsider. Twenty-seven percent of Republican voters said Trump should be replaced as the party’s candidate.
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