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NBA Commissioner Adam Silver says the league is keeping a close watch on the fast-changing world of prediction markets, but he made clear he does not see Giannis Antetokounmpo’s investment in Kalshi as a major issue.
Speaking with reporters during All-Star Weekend, Silver addressed questions about the Milwaukee Bucks star’s financial stake in the federally regulated prediction market platform. In the weeks following the NBA’s 2026 trade deadline, markets speculating on Antetokounmpo’s potential next team generated more than $23 million in trading volume.
Silver downplayed the significance of the player’s involvement.
“The case of Giannis [Antetokounmpo], from what I understand, it’s a minuscule investment, much smaller than 1%,” Silver said, adding that “that does not violate the rules that have been collectively bargained with the Players Association.” Silver continued, “Obviously, it’s an issue that I’m paying, enormous amount of attention to. It’s rapidly evolving.”
Antetokounmpo finalized the investment one day after the trade deadline and later disclosed it publicly. Around that same time, Kalshi users were actively trading contracts tied to where he might land, even as he publicly suggested he was not focused on a move. He ultimately remained in Milwaukee, but the activity stirred debate about optics and possible conflicts.
Silver indicated the situation fits into a much larger conversation about betting and event-based trading, amid an NBA gambling scandal that had wide-reaching consequences.
NBA Commissioner Silver on prediction markets
The commissioner said the league is approaching prediction markets much the way it handles traditional sports wagering. Legalized betting has spread rapidly, and the NBA now operates in a patchwork of domestic and international jurisdictions.
“We currently are looking at prediction markets, essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting,” Silver said. “The league is now dealing with essentially 40 different jurisdictions that have legalized sports betting in the United States. The last I looked, there are probably 80 countries in the world outside the United States that also have legal, legalized betting on the NBA.” He added that this proliferation “concerns me in the totality of all this betting that we need a better handle, no pun intended, on all the different activity that’s happening out there.”
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to player transactions. Kalshi operates under oversight from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which the company says sets it apart from traditional sportsbooks and many offshore platforms.
The firm has previously said it prohibits “insider trading” and uses surveillance systems similar to those employed by financial exchanges. CEO Tarek Mansour has argued that permitting insider advantages “erodes trust,” warning that “if people believe a market is unfair, they stop trading.”
Still, skeptics point to episodes on other platforms and even Kalshi itself to argue that regulation remains uneven. One widely cited case involved a trader who reportedly turned roughly $30,000 tied to events in Venezuela into more than $400,000 on Polymarket, fueling “concerns about the lack of restrictions around insider trading on prediction markets.”
In Washington, lawmakers have responded with proposals such as the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would restrict certain federal officials from trading on events where they may hold non-public information.
Under the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement, players can own up to 1% of a wagering or prediction company, provided they do not participate in markets directly tied to NBA outcomes. League officials say Antetokounmpo’s stake falls within that limit.
Featured image: Giannis Antetokounmpo via X
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